08/24/2010 The Hindenburg Omen?



When everybody is convinced something is going to happen, it rarely does. The current negativity in the market will lead to a tradeable bounce. The question is from what level?

Bonds are clearly in a bubble with much risk and little return. Will this money head into stocks? Some will, chasing dividends.

Europe on its way to round two of destabilization.

Short stocks, short bonds and adding to our Long US Dollar position!!

August 18, 2010


Let's get ready to rumble!!!

The spike of mortgage refinancings will not stimulate the economy because the ony people who can refinance now are the responsible ones. They are simply refinancing to lower their rate. (A very smart move since 30 mortgage rates are the lowest they've ever been).

These folks however, aren't using the extra saving to buy new cars or tv's, etc. Like I said, these are the responsible people. The rest can't take advantage of the low rates because they either don't qualify or are still underwater on their current mortgage. (Of course these are the same folks who bought new cars and tv's and things the last time they refinanced).

So....Look out below!!!! Let's get ready to rumble!!! My bet is on the bear!

July 30,2010 Deja Vu?



Brings back memories from the Dot-com bubble

http://www.cnbc.com/id/38491131

March of the Profitless IPOs: More to Come Next Week
Expect to see highly leveraged, profitless deals as private equity looks to exit into a market that appears interested mostly in the trade, not the company. Herb Greenberg reports.
There was a time when big profitless IPOs were at the end of an IPO cycle, signalling some kind of market top.

Yet the march of the profitless IPOs continues. Two that caught my attention from next week's calendar, in no particular order:

Intralinks Holdings. This company lets businesses securely exchange data in the cloud. This is its third swipe at going public since 1999.

It's coming out just three years after private equity got involved and three areas concern:

It's making no money. It has a bunch of debt. A ton of competition.

And in my humble opinion, it's trying to capitalize on anything remotely cloud-related before that window closes.

Herb Greenberg
Senior Stocks
Commentator

The second is NXP Semiconductor, which makes chips used for all sorts of products. It's backed by KKR [KKR 9.05 -0.43 (-4.54%) ], Bain and Silverlake, among others.

Like IntraLinks, it has a history of losses. And tons of competition, including Freescale, which is rumored to be looking to IPO soon.

And, like many private equity deals, it has billions in debt—five billion, to be precise. It's so much debt, in fact, that any use of the $600 million or so in proceeds will be a drop in the bucket to help repay the debt.

My take: Expect to see more of these highly leveraged, profitless deals as private equity looks to exit into a market that appears interested mostly in the trade, not the company.

7/22/2010 Europe news looking better. The clam before the storm this fall!











July 22, 2010 8:32 AM EDT
GM to acquire AmeriCredit for $3.5 billion.

We were highly critical of the sale of the controlling stake of GMAC in 2006 by the incompetent management at GM. At the time we said they simply don't understand their business. Just like IBM, it took Gerstner from RJR Nabisco to run a computer company, a Telecom exec is showing some sense in running an Auto Manufacturer/Sales company. (Perhaps it is the "Sales" part the old guard didn't understand).

Good job Ed Whitacre!

July 21, 2010



Economic outlook remains "unusually uncertain."

Bull/Bear case is at a crossroads. Tomorrow's Jobs report could tilt the hand one way or another.

Looking short term for a break of either 1100 to the upside or 1040 to the downside to determine future direction.

July 10, 2010 Lot's of Bears



While we continue to believe the market will roll over from here and head south fast, there are concerning signs with the number of bears.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/38168490

In third waves however, you can allow for a majority to be alined in the same direction for a while. This of course leads to a majority of bearish conviction which in turn will create a buying opportunity. We just feel at this point that it will be from a lower level.

Any sustained move above this current 1080/1090 level could signal the low is in place.

07/05/2010

Happy Independence Day!!!! Remember why this holiday exist!



Looking for a short term capitulation. Add to shorts on the bounce. Far from over on the downside medium to long term.