11/01/2009 "Ticket to Ride"
Now that was some ride! We gave you the ticket. We hope you rode it down and cashed in. We did!
The market has rolled over as expected. The Obama bounce of 2009 is over.
While we all appreciate the attempt of the government to save us from ourselves, once again their programs won't work.
GDP at 3.5% is all smoke and mirrors due to government induced capital. This will be the highest GDP report for sometime.
Each extra cash for clunkers sale cost $24,000 to the taxpayer. http://www.edmunds.com/help/about/press/159446/article.html.
The first time buyers home allowance has now buried new homeowners into their own money pit. Taxpayers are on the hook and the new home has depreciated like a new Chrysler mini-van being driven off the lot.
The only salvation of the economy is business, not government. We could just have a bunch of services like the post office and Amtrak but eventually someone has to pay for it.
While the market should rally this week to once again fool the masses into buying more garbage stocks, it is only setting up the next massive sell-off.
The S & P could make a lower low Monday but either way will most likely rally back to the 1060 - 1075 level at which will provide one of the best long term shorting opportunities of a lifetime.
Stay tuned.
10/25/2009
This market won't die! Yet!
Covered most all short-term short positions Friday. Hedged long term shorts with short term Nov SPY calls and Short sales of Nov GS puts. Look to re-enter all short positions this week or at least by next week.
The longer this market goes up, the worse the fall will be.
If the market can rally into the end of the month, we should see multiple non-confirmations and trade-able divergences.
Covered most all short-term short positions Friday. Hedged long term shorts with short term Nov SPY calls and Short sales of Nov GS puts. Look to re-enter all short positions this week or at least by next week.
The longer this market goes up, the worse the fall will be.
If the market can rally into the end of the month, we should see multiple non-confirmations and trade-able divergences.
October 21, 2009
Responding to criticism that the Obama administration's $787 billion in stimulus spending hasn't done enough to boost employment, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told CNBC Wednesday that the recovery package passed in January has created or saved one million jobs, and without it, the economy would be in much worse shape.
AP
Nancy Pelosi
She did say, however, that more needs to be done.
"It's not enough to say we saved jobs, and we haven't created enough," she said.
As a result, the administration is considering short-term initiatives to help businesses boost hiring, such as a $3,000 tax credit for adding new employees, Pelosi said.
It has discussed extending health benefits from COBRA, so that people who have lost their jobs "have some relief," she said.
The government's multi-billion investments in health care and energy are also designed to create more jobs, she said.
"And we thought Rick Wagoner of GM was incompetent...God Help Us All!!!!"
The Top is Here!
10/15/2009
Been a while since the last post. If you call a top too early, you are simply wrong. The best line learned from Cramer is "diversification is the only free lunch."
While I've continued to cry SELL! It has been too early. (i.e. wrong). Hedging my short positions with call options has kept an early call from being a drastic call. Diversify, hedge, whatever, it means the same and works. Always be protected.
However, by tomorrow afternoon, all hedges will be lifted and diversification thrown to the wind. (I will use stops of course).
Google did blow out the numbers and should take this market over 1100 S & P. 1107 should be hard resistance. 1125 is my stop. I am giving a lot of leeway for the stop.
The market is tired and leadership waning. (GS, IBM).
Without going into the fundamental reasons why banking and the economy suffers with high unemployment, etc, etc, etc...or post technical charts, I'll merely say SELL!!!!
Welcome to the Great Bear Market of 2010, 2011.
Been a while since the last post. If you call a top too early, you are simply wrong. The best line learned from Cramer is "diversification is the only free lunch."
While I've continued to cry SELL! It has been too early. (i.e. wrong). Hedging my short positions with call options has kept an early call from being a drastic call. Diversify, hedge, whatever, it means the same and works. Always be protected.
However, by tomorrow afternoon, all hedges will be lifted and diversification thrown to the wind. (I will use stops of course).
Google did blow out the numbers and should take this market over 1100 S & P. 1107 should be hard resistance. 1125 is my stop. I am giving a lot of leeway for the stop.
The market is tired and leadership waning. (GS, IBM).
Without going into the fundamental reasons why banking and the economy suffers with high unemployment, etc, etc, etc...or post technical charts, I'll merely say SELL!!!!
Welcome to the Great Bear Market of 2010, 2011.
"Get out while you can"
August 30, 2009
As in the song by the Downtown Executives, "You'd better get out while you can."
Market tops are made by a process. While this bear market rally rose on good news and bad news it kept rising. Now we are seeing the market failing to rise on even better news. (Intel) If the top is not in yet we are too close to be long anymore.
When the market bottomed in March, the news was drastic. Now the news is ecstatic. (We've save the World)!
The fed meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming this month acknowledge that last year they didn't see coming what ultimately happened. This year they praised themselves for saving the world.
Unfortunately, they do not see what is coming again.
States and local governments will not have the revenues to meet their obligations.
Unemployment is still rising causing further strain on housing and foreclosures.
Cash for Clunkers has pulled sales forward and is merely a government subsidy which creates more debt.
While I could go on and on, I'll merely say "get out while you can."
This market is at levels which it won't see for years to come.
The dollar will rise from these levels against all odds which will sink stocks, commodities and commodity related stocks.
Deflation is here and is about to reign full force.
Be prepared.
As in the song by the Downtown Executives, "You'd better get out while you can."
Market tops are made by a process. While this bear market rally rose on good news and bad news it kept rising. Now we are seeing the market failing to rise on even better news. (Intel) If the top is not in yet we are too close to be long anymore.
When the market bottomed in March, the news was drastic. Now the news is ecstatic. (We've save the World)!
The fed meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming this month acknowledge that last year they didn't see coming what ultimately happened. This year they praised themselves for saving the world.
Unfortunately, they do not see what is coming again.
States and local governments will not have the revenues to meet their obligations.
Unemployment is still rising causing further strain on housing and foreclosures.
Cash for Clunkers has pulled sales forward and is merely a government subsidy which creates more debt.
While I could go on and on, I'll merely say "get out while you can."
This market is at levels which it won't see for years to come.
The dollar will rise from these levels against all odds which will sink stocks, commodities and commodity related stocks.
Deflation is here and is about to reign full force.
Be prepared.
Foreclosures don't matter in housing recovery
But RealtyTrac's Rick Sharga, who saw no good news in his own report, begged to differ on the overall housing recovery:
" If we'd had this conversation a year ago, and you'd asked me if the housing market could recover simultaneously while foreclosure numbers were spiking, I would have said probably not, but we are seeing some data that almost looks contradictory. We're seeing increased levels of foreclosure activity, and we're seeing price stabilization at the same time. So it could just be that there is so much buying interest because the affordability levels have become basically record levels, and there's this inventory sitting out there waiting for the buyers. The market might be recovering at what amounts to the "new normal" level of foreclosure activity at least for the time being. "
HELLO!!!! Perhaps Rick Sarga should to "RealityTrac" to get a bit more info.
Now I know we all want housing to turn around, but just like all the new government debt, you must absorb the supply to bottom out and go forward. While the high number of foreclosures does mean we're getting rid of bad debts the report also points out new areas of foreclosures such as Kansas, Oregon, Missouri, etc... which reflect the consequences of the high unemployment.
Take advantage of the exuberant bullishness and sell all your stock holdings. As for real estate, there will be plenty of time still to buy cheap. Look towards 2010 thru 2012.
" If we'd had this conversation a year ago, and you'd asked me if the housing market could recover simultaneously while foreclosure numbers were spiking, I would have said probably not, but we are seeing some data that almost looks contradictory. We're seeing increased levels of foreclosure activity, and we're seeing price stabilization at the same time. So it could just be that there is so much buying interest because the affordability levels have become basically record levels, and there's this inventory sitting out there waiting for the buyers. The market might be recovering at what amounts to the "new normal" level of foreclosure activity at least for the time being. "
HELLO!!!! Perhaps Rick Sarga should to "RealityTrac" to get a bit more info.
Now I know we all want housing to turn around, but just like all the new government debt, you must absorb the supply to bottom out and go forward. While the high number of foreclosures does mean we're getting rid of bad debts the report also points out new areas of foreclosures such as Kansas, Oregon, Missouri, etc... which reflect the consequences of the high unemployment.
Take advantage of the exuberant bullishness and sell all your stock holdings. As for real estate, there will be plenty of time still to buy cheap. Look towards 2010 thru 2012.
August 12, 2009
"THE EYE OF THE STORM"
Just like a hurricane, it first hits with maximum fury, then there is an eerie calm before the next wave hits.
That is where we are in the economy and stock market.
Just like in 1929, few could imagine what was ahead in the thirties. Just because some rich bankers jumped from their windows because of their 90% leveraged accounts were wiped out in a single day (on a 10% drop in the market), how could that affect the masses. (We know now). That was merely the first crack in the dam.
We have experienced the first crack in the dam and are now in the "eye of the storm."
Irrational exuberance abounds. (look at the action in FRE [Freddie Mac] this week). Money is flowing to garbage stocks such as that and AIG. Penny stock promoters are back in full force and advertising on the radio. The government is spending money exponentially faster than Bernie Madoff and the public is believing the whole political bag job.
All I can say is "SELL, SELL, SELL."
A quote I have heard more than once is "I'm just waiting to get my investment back before I sell." Meaning the Dow must go above 14,000. Oh, OK...waiting until 2025? Now in all seriousness, it might break 14,000 before 2020, but that's a bit far out to see.
On the short term, we are much more likely to break 667 than 14,000. As a matter of fact, I believe we will at least revisit, if not break 667 before the end of 2010, without crossing 14,000 first. So if you are waiting to sell at 14,000 you might have a long time to wait.
While our sell signal at 956 was quite timely, we obviously did not call the top. Our short sales were stopped out at 912. The biggest mistake we made was not to reverse and go long at that level.
The risk of the upcoming decline is far greater that any advance forthcoming.
The biggest question now is from what price point will the drop start?
Some say we have already topped at 1018.
Our research and analysis could agree but believe we have one more recovery high due this week or next which could push the market up to as high as the 1040 - 1050 level. This is the point to aggressively short. With such a small advance ahead, all shorts or put positions can be purchased here and held through the decline. August options are all closed except for very short term trading accounts.
In the mean time, our spreads are working fine.
Stay tuned and good luck trading or let us manage your account for you.
"THE EYE OF THE STORM"
Just like a hurricane, it first hits with maximum fury, then there is an eerie calm before the next wave hits.
That is where we are in the economy and stock market.
Just like in 1929, few could imagine what was ahead in the thirties. Just because some rich bankers jumped from their windows because of their 90% leveraged accounts were wiped out in a single day (on a 10% drop in the market), how could that affect the masses. (We know now). That was merely the first crack in the dam.
We have experienced the first crack in the dam and are now in the "eye of the storm."
Irrational exuberance abounds. (look at the action in FRE [Freddie Mac] this week). Money is flowing to garbage stocks such as that and AIG. Penny stock promoters are back in full force and advertising on the radio. The government is spending money exponentially faster than Bernie Madoff and the public is believing the whole political bag job.
All I can say is "SELL, SELL, SELL."
A quote I have heard more than once is "I'm just waiting to get my investment back before I sell." Meaning the Dow must go above 14,000. Oh, OK...waiting until 2025? Now in all seriousness, it might break 14,000 before 2020, but that's a bit far out to see.
On the short term, we are much more likely to break 667 than 14,000. As a matter of fact, I believe we will at least revisit, if not break 667 before the end of 2010, without crossing 14,000 first. So if you are waiting to sell at 14,000 you might have a long time to wait.
While our sell signal at 956 was quite timely, we obviously did not call the top. Our short sales were stopped out at 912. The biggest mistake we made was not to reverse and go long at that level.
The risk of the upcoming decline is far greater that any advance forthcoming.
The biggest question now is from what price point will the drop start?
Some say we have already topped at 1018.
Our research and analysis could agree but believe we have one more recovery high due this week or next which could push the market up to as high as the 1040 - 1050 level. This is the point to aggressively short. With such a small advance ahead, all shorts or put positions can be purchased here and held through the decline. August options are all closed except for very short term trading accounts.
In the mean time, our spreads are working fine.
Stay tuned and good luck trading or let us manage your account for you.
July 22, 2009
The market continues to climb defying the laws of gravity. It is in the most overbought condition in 2 years. Our shorts sales were stopped out at 912. We are now above 956 where we sold. While it is possible for the market to do an ABC (up - down -up) pattern to over 1000 on the S & P 500, I currently favor the double top scenario keeping under resistance at 960. Short term should correct by Friday this week and next week at which time an assessment can be made as to the continuing gravitation defiance.
Current trade is back on the short side, also selling August and Sept SPY call spreads.
Either way, by this fall/next spring, the market will be at a much lower level.
The market continues to climb defying the laws of gravity. It is in the most overbought condition in 2 years. Our shorts sales were stopped out at 912. We are now above 956 where we sold. While it is possible for the market to do an ABC (up - down -up) pattern to over 1000 on the S & P 500, I currently favor the double top scenario keeping under resistance at 960. Short term should correct by Friday this week and next week at which time an assessment can be made as to the continuing gravitation defiance.
Current trade is back on the short side, also selling August and Sept SPY call spreads.
Either way, by this fall/next spring, the market will be at a much lower level.
Deflation
July 06, 2009
Recession Special: Wine Cheaper Than Water!
Published: Monday, 6 Jul 2009 2:52 PM ET
Text Size
By: Cindy PermanWriter
A lot of people are trading down on their meals, cooking at home and eating fast food, amid the recession.
Fill me up, Johnny—Just doing my part to help the economy!
But your culinary luck is about to change: Things are now so bad that you can eat and drink like a king at pauper’s prices!
Remember, we told you that the recession has hit the seafood industry so hard, you can now get lobster at lunch-meat prices on Cape Cod.
Well, pour yourself a glass of vino to go with that lobster tail tonight because wine prices have fallen so much, winemakers in Australia are complaining that wine is now cheaper than some bottled water.
WATER!
Dan Murphy, a major wine-retail chain in Australia, is currently selling cleanskins, bottles of wine without a label that are usually sold in a case, for 1.99 Australian dollars, or about $1.60, the Sunday Mail reports.
That’s less than half of what wine cost 10 years ago, the New York Times reported.
“Australia can’t even bottle air and make money selling at that price,” Jeremy Oliver, an Australian winemaker and critic, is quoted as saying in the Times. “The industry is in crisis.”
It’s so bad that some growers aren’t even picking all of their grapes. And Foster’s, the biggest winemaker in Australia, has already sold about 31 vineyards.
This is a rallying cry, people!
Forget the tea parties, raise your goblet high and say it with me: "We will drink until the last drop of recession has been swallowed!"
As Napolean once said, "In victory, you deserve champagne. In defeat, you need it."
I'll drink to that.
* CLINK! *
Beware of Deflation. Oil plunged today over $2.50 per barrell. While ultimately, the printing of trillions of U.S. dollars will lead to inflation, we first will have to deal with a devastating bout of deflation.
With all that has happened, gold has still not surpassed it's peak reached in February. A lower price below $750 an ounce would make a great entry. We look to that level in the near future.
Recession Special: Wine Cheaper Than Water!
Published: Monday, 6 Jul 2009 2:52 PM ET
Text Size
By: Cindy PermanWriter
A lot of people are trading down on their meals, cooking at home and eating fast food, amid the recession.
Fill me up, Johnny—Just doing my part to help the economy!
But your culinary luck is about to change: Things are now so bad that you can eat and drink like a king at pauper’s prices!
Remember, we told you that the recession has hit the seafood industry so hard, you can now get lobster at lunch-meat prices on Cape Cod.
Well, pour yourself a glass of vino to go with that lobster tail tonight because wine prices have fallen so much, winemakers in Australia are complaining that wine is now cheaper than some bottled water.
WATER!
Dan Murphy, a major wine-retail chain in Australia, is currently selling cleanskins, bottles of wine without a label that are usually sold in a case, for 1.99 Australian dollars, or about $1.60, the Sunday Mail reports.
That’s less than half of what wine cost 10 years ago, the New York Times reported.
“Australia can’t even bottle air and make money selling at that price,” Jeremy Oliver, an Australian winemaker and critic, is quoted as saying in the Times. “The industry is in crisis.”
It’s so bad that some growers aren’t even picking all of their grapes. And Foster’s, the biggest winemaker in Australia, has already sold about 31 vineyards.
This is a rallying cry, people!
Forget the tea parties, raise your goblet high and say it with me: "We will drink until the last drop of recession has been swallowed!"
As Napolean once said, "In victory, you deserve champagne. In defeat, you need it."
I'll drink to that.
* CLINK! *
Beware of Deflation. Oil plunged today over $2.50 per barrell. While ultimately, the printing of trillions of U.S. dollars will lead to inflation, we first will have to deal with a devastating bout of deflation.
With all that has happened, gold has still not surpassed it's peak reached in February. A lower price below $750 an ounce would make a great entry. We look to that level in the near future.
July 2, 2009
...California tumbles into the sea
That'll be the day I go
Back to Annandale...1973
Looks like the Steely Dan guys will be going "back to their old school."
IOU
The revenue shortfalls that will be experienced by States and Municipalities will be one of the factors for further economic deterioration. This "new world order" can only pull us out of the debt binge by economic expansion. Growing government is not the way to economic expansion.
Our update on June 10, 2009 turned out to be quite timely. The final exit of the stock market has pinned the exact high. Our short sales have done nicely.
Today's sell off has reached a very short-term oversold position. Shorts were closed today around 3:30 p.m. The market should keep heading lower in July but perhaps next week either a sideways or counter-trend bounce will relieve this oversold condition. At such point the market will be reassessed and we will re-enter positions.
Remember the meaning of the 4th of July! Let freedom ring!
That'll be the day I go
Back to Annandale...1973
Looks like the Steely Dan guys will be going "back to their old school."
IOU
The revenue shortfalls that will be experienced by States and Municipalities will be one of the factors for further economic deterioration. This "new world order" can only pull us out of the debt binge by economic expansion. Growing government is not the way to economic expansion.
Our update on June 10, 2009 turned out to be quite timely. The final exit of the stock market has pinned the exact high. Our short sales have done nicely.
Today's sell off has reached a very short-term oversold position. Shorts were closed today around 3:30 p.m. The market should keep heading lower in July but perhaps next week either a sideways or counter-trend bounce will relieve this oversold condition. At such point the market will be reassessed and we will re-enter positions.
Remember the meaning of the 4th of July! Let freedom ring!
June 18, 2009
The Treasury announced Thursday a record $104 billion worth of bond auctions for next week, part of its herculean efforts to finance a rescue of the world's largest economy.
Oh...it's too late, we can't.
U.S. Stock markets rallied today pushing toward the 927 - 935 level in the S & P 500 relieving the oversold condition brought on by the first wave of selling since posting a top at 956.
Option expiration day is tomorrow. If not already short, any rally above 923 should be shorted aggressively, add to positions at 930 with a stop at 938. A push to the 935 level could be reached but the reward side of this short position is great at this time.
Gold has broken down as well. Although gold is very attractive long term, the deflationary influence in this market will take down gold along with the commodities which have already started to decline. Gold could move below $700 per ounce at which time we will be aggressive buyers.
The Treasury announced Thursday a record $104 billion worth of bond auctions for next week, part of its herculean efforts to finance a rescue of the world's largest economy.
 |
The sales will exceed the previous record of $101 billion set in auctions that took place in the last week of April and consist of two-year, five-year and seven-year securities. That record was matched by another $101 billion week in May.
Though next week's total was broadly in line with expectations, worries about supply have weighed on the U.S. government bond market, which will see a mammoth $2 trillion worth of new debt issued this year.
Stop the madness!!!!Oh...it's too late, we can't.
U.S. Stock markets rallied today pushing toward the 927 - 935 level in the S & P 500 relieving the oversold condition brought on by the first wave of selling since posting a top at 956.
Option expiration day is tomorrow. If not already short, any rally above 923 should be shorted aggressively, add to positions at 930 with a stop at 938. A push to the 935 level could be reached but the reward side of this short position is great at this time.
Gold has broken down as well. Although gold is very attractive long term, the deflationary influence in this market will take down gold along with the commodities which have already started to decline. Gold could move below $700 per ounce at which time we will be aggressive buyers.
6/17/2009
The market has sold off as expected. Currently in a bounce but should soon resume lower piercing the spx 900 level. Options expiration week can bring hard to read surprises.
Quote of the day, courtesy of Karl ‘No Slave To Fashion’ Denninger:
Government, despite their so-called “new proposal” has refused to take the steps that are necessary to resolve this crisis and return us to a stable economic base.
The reason for this is simple: Government is both beholden to and stuffed to the gills with those who made the bad decisions, and forcing those people to eat their bad investments is considered politically unacceptable.
We therefore will do this “the hard way”, just like we did in the 1930s.
Buckle up - this road might get “a little rough.”
Unfortunately, the ones who made the decisions which are at the root of our financial problems are still in charge. While the markets ran off the Lehmans and Bear Stearns they were merely players in the game not the rule makers. Losses will correct bad behavior, unfortunately we don't have such remedies in government.
The market has sold off as expected. Currently in a bounce but should soon resume lower piercing the spx 900 level. Options expiration week can bring hard to read surprises.
Quote of the day, courtesy of Karl ‘No Slave To Fashion’ Denninger:
Government, despite their so-called “new proposal” has refused to take the steps that are necessary to resolve this crisis and return us to a stable economic base.
The reason for this is simple: Government is both beholden to and stuffed to the gills with those who made the bad decisions, and forcing those people to eat their bad investments is considered politically unacceptable.
We therefore will do this “the hard way”, just like we did in the 1930s.
Buckle up - this road might get “a little rough.”
Unfortunately, the ones who made the decisions which are at the root of our financial problems are still in charge. While the markets ran off the Lehmans and Bear Stearns they were merely players in the game not the rule makers. Losses will correct bad behavior, unfortunately we don't have such remedies in government.
6/10/2009
What is wrong with this picture.....??
"Federal Reserve lost $5.25 billion in the first quarter on the securities it acquired with last year's bailouts of Bear Stearns and insurer American International Group, according to a report issued Wednesday.
Mary Altaffer / AP
Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Ben Bernanke
The loss on the holdings, which include mortgage-backed securities, reflected a decline in their value as the recession carried over into the first three months of this year. The cumulative loss on the Bear and AIG holdings come to $16.46 billion since they were taken over last year."
Did JP Morgan Chase lose money on their Bear Stearns investment??? I don't think so. WTF!!!!
If you haven't sold all your stock holdings yet, the market is going to give you one more chance Thursday, Friday or perhaps next week.
Sell all holdings and for those who are agressive, go short!
What is wrong with this picture.....??
"Federal Reserve lost $5.25 billion in the first quarter on the securities it acquired with last year's bailouts of Bear Stearns and insurer American International Group, according to a report issued Wednesday.
Mary Altaffer / AP
Federal Reserve Bank Chairman Ben Bernanke
The loss on the holdings, which include mortgage-backed securities, reflected a decline in their value as the recession carried over into the first three months of this year. The cumulative loss on the Bear and AIG holdings come to $16.46 billion since they were taken over last year."
Did JP Morgan Chase lose money on their Bear Stearns investment??? I don't think so. WTF!!!!
If you haven't sold all your stock holdings yet, the market is going to give you one more chance Thursday, Friday or perhaps next week.
Sell all holdings and for those who are agressive, go short!
June 1, 2009
"Sell in May and walk away." That is how the old saying goes. The common consensus this year is different. The bulls are coming alive! The bears are going into hibernation with their heads down.
While timing the market is always difficult, when we look back this fall, next spring or so...the sell in May and walk away signal will be genius. (We could even get a chance to sell the summer rally at perhaps higher prices, but why risk it?).
As an American, I wish this was a new bull market and will be on it's way to new highs, a once in a lifetime chance to buy at incredible prices. (we actually had a nice one in March, just need to sell those purchases now!!!). As a capitalist and a realist, I firmly believe that this may be a "once in a lifetime" chance to sell all stocks to at least re-coop some of the losses that most sustained in 2008.
There will be another chance to BUY, but for now, capital preservation is far more important!
The S & P target has been met. While there is still a chance to go to the 1,000 - 1,120 range, the downside risk is far, far greater.
"Sell in May and walk away." That is how the old saying goes. The common consensus this year is different. The bulls are coming alive! The bears are going into hibernation with their heads down.
While timing the market is always difficult, when we look back this fall, next spring or so...the sell in May and walk away signal will be genius. (We could even get a chance to sell the summer rally at perhaps higher prices, but why risk it?).
As an American, I wish this was a new bull market and will be on it's way to new highs, a once in a lifetime chance to buy at incredible prices. (we actually had a nice one in March, just need to sell those purchases now!!!). As a capitalist and a realist, I firmly believe that this may be a "once in a lifetime" chance to sell all stocks to at least re-coop some of the losses that most sustained in 2008.
There will be another chance to BUY, but for now, capital preservation is far more important!
The S & P target has been met. While there is still a chance to go to the 1,000 - 1,120 range, the downside risk is far, far greater.
5/26/2009
Bulls were in charge today. While our entry in March was timely the mistakes in markets are that they can get way oversold and way overbought.
While this market is way overbought you can still have up days like today.
We remain short term negative on this market. The more it rises the faster it will fall.
Bulls were in charge today. While our entry in March was timely the mistakes in markets are that they can get way oversold and way overbought.
While this market is way overbought you can still have up days like today.
We remain short term negative on this market. The more it rises the faster it will fall.
March 28, 2009
The market has made the "biggest 10 day advance in 70 years." What does that me for us? RING THE REGISTER! SELL! This first wave of a countertrend rally has been tremendous but markets don't go straight up or straight down. The perfect scenario would be to continue up into Tuesday while the fundies complete their windowdressing and then hard down to the 740 - 770 level on the S & P 500. This might only take one or two days. At that point we're back in 100% long. The market could try and not give us a chance to get back in but the present overbought condition warrants a trade out for another reload below SP 770.
The market has made the "biggest 10 day advance in 70 years." What does that me for us? RING THE REGISTER! SELL! This first wave of a countertrend rally has been tremendous but markets don't go straight up or straight down. The perfect scenario would be to continue up into Tuesday while the fundies complete their windowdressing and then hard down to the 740 - 770 level on the S & P 500. This might only take one or two days. At that point we're back in 100% long. The market could try and not give us a chance to get back in but the present overbought condition warrants a trade out for another reload below SP 770.
MARCH 19, 2009
The AIG mess is simple. Are the execs who caused the mess still there? If so, fire them! Don't give them bonuses. Prosecute them! This is not talent that need to be retained. This is not talent at all, a monkey could not have managed the business any worse. If the bonuses go to employees who are there to straighten out the mess, then they deserve it. Problem is nobody is saying if these are the same execs.
REAL ESTATE:
Maybe not the most desired scenario, but think of this...after the massive printing of all this money fights the deflationary spiral, it will lead to an inflationary disaster. Your home and real estate holdings will increase dramatically (in dollars) because the dollar will be worth so much less. Hmmm....so your $300,000 house will be worth $1,000,000. Perhaps this is how we end the real estate crisis. Problem is it will cost three time as much (at least) for everything else.
REAL ESTATE:
Maybe not the most desired scenario, but think of this...after the massive printing of all this money fights the deflationary spiral, it will lead to an inflationary disaster. Your home and real estate holdings will increase dramatically (in dollars) because the dollar will be worth so much less. Hmmm....so your $300,000 house will be worth $1,000,000. Perhaps this is how we end the real estate crisis. Problem is it will cost three time as much (at least) for everything else.
March 13 2009
Our timing models have rewarded us with a very fast 10% plus gain in less than a week. While pleased with our immediate gains in the market after being in cash since 2008, it is a bit too fast too furious. While not selling, we have gone into short term hedge mode this morning by selling call options and buying puts with the proceeds. This in turn will lock in our profits for now. Remember, if your broker is not producing results such as these, fire him and switch to JH Blake Capital Management. We only make money when you make money!
Our timing models have rewarded us with a very fast 10% plus gain in less than a week. While pleased with our immediate gains in the market after being in cash since 2008, it is a bit too fast too furious. While not selling, we have gone into short term hedge mode this morning by selling call options and buying puts with the proceeds. This in turn will lock in our profits for now. Remember, if your broker is not producing results such as these, fire him and switch to JH Blake Capital Management. We only make money when you make money!
February 26, 2009
While the news keep getting worse, we have been enjoying our returns on cash since May of 2008. The S & P 500 should now confirm the new lows that the Dow already has. Now is the time to start buying for the upcoming intermediate term rally. The Dow should go into the 6 thousand handle while the S & P 500 should break below 741.02. Our goal is the be 100% long the indexes and ETF's we recommend by the March 13, 2009.
While the news keep getting worse, we have been enjoying our returns on cash since May of 2008. The S & P 500 should now confirm the new lows that the Dow already has. Now is the time to start buying for the upcoming intermediate term rally. The Dow should go into the 6 thousand handle while the S & P 500 should break below 741.02. Our goal is the be 100% long the indexes and ETF's we recommend by the March 13, 2009.
February 16, 2009
The following weeks should result in tremendous stress on the markets. We are getting very close to our intermediate term BUY signal. Once we get through this final shakeout 2009 should be a very positive year for stocks and mutual funds.
While gold currently looks strong, this is a time to sell into the strength.
For those who have held on to their stocks funds through this whole decline, switch advisors and let J.H.BLAKE Capital manage your accounts. You keep your money, we just manage it.
It's easy to make recommendations to buy, but good selling advice is hard to come by.
January 28,2009
House passes stimulus bill. Dow rallies 201 pts.
Sell this rally!!!
Wouldn't it be nice if all we had to do was to keep borrowing more to pay our current debt? As long as we can keep borrowing our bills keep getting paid.
One problem...that's not possible unless you are the government.
Markets should make new lows within the next two months and then you can get back in your mutuals for a nice 2009 rally!!!! For now keep making interest on your money market. For the aggressive, sell short!!!
Ready, set, go!!!
The following weeks should result in tremendous stress on the markets. We are getting very close to our intermediate term BUY signal. Once we get through this final shakeout 2009 should be a very positive year for stocks and mutual funds.
While gold currently looks strong, this is a time to sell into the strength.
For those who have held on to their stocks funds through this whole decline, switch advisors and let J.H.BLAKE Capital manage your accounts. You keep your money, we just manage it.
It's easy to make recommendations to buy, but good selling advice is hard to come by.
January 28,2009
House passes stimulus bill. Dow rallies 201 pts.
Sell this rally!!!
Wouldn't it be nice if all we had to do was to keep borrowing more to pay our current debt? As long as we can keep borrowing our bills keep getting paid.
One problem...that's not possible unless you are the government.
Markets should make new lows within the next two months and then you can get back in your mutuals for a nice 2009 rally!!!! For now keep making interest on your money market. For the aggressive, sell short!!!
Ready, set, go!!!
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