Bulls Everywhere 10/11/2010

The market sentiment has turned decidedly bullish in anticipation of QE2. While this is hurting our short position we can't help but believe this will end badly. Still holding current positions.

10/01/2010 Load the Truck up!!!

Time to load the truck up with puts!!!
Gold is soaring! Talking heads on CNBC are tripping all over themselves to be bullish.

If Gold is soaring and the Dollar crashing, then why are stocks not already at 1200 S&P or beyond? Perhaps the future is not so bright so take those shades off! (Especially the rose colored ones).

Short Oct, Nov & Dec SPY Call spreads. Long Oct, Nov & Dec. puts. Long UUP, 50% short GLD. (Hope I'm right)

September 17, 2010

Our gold trade is a bit early but the long side is so crowded, we are staying with our shorts.

While the stock market has reached the upper end of its trading range, we have conflicting scenarios:

The volume hasn't come back perhaps because the individual investor is through giving his money to the game. (At least the stock game - they are throwing it away in huge numbers to bonds - soon to be highly disappointed).Will this lead to an eventual war of the big dogs attacking each other. The game must go on but if the retail investor does not come in, which we believe they won't then the big boys will turn on each other creating a monster sell off.

or

The market will keep pushing higher in spite of the worsening technicals still believing the retail customer will be there for the institutions to unload their positions.


We like the first scenario. We are staying short, selling call spreads into this rally, on gold and SPY. Buying dollars and UUP.

9/10/2010 SHORT GOLD!

Gold truly is a beautiful metal, but at this price? I don't think so.

Shorting gold today for a long term swing trade.

09/03/2010 Last Train to Clarksville

So there was our tradeable rally. A freight train straight up. Here's a picture of how this ride will end.

Welcome to September, now fasten your seatbelts.

Some might say we are starting a new bull market. I doubt it.

Sold more calls at the close today.

08/24/2010 The Hindenburg Omen?

When everybody is convinced something is going to happen, it rarely does. The current negativity in the market will lead to a tradeable bounce. The question is from what level?

Bonds are clearly in a bubble with much risk and little return. Will this money head into stocks? Some will, chasing dividends.

Europe on its way to round two of destabilization.

Short stocks, short bonds and adding to our Long US Dollar position!!

August 18, 2010

Let's get ready to rumble!!!

The spike of mortgage refinancings will not stimulate the economy because the ony people who can refinance now are the responsible ones. They are simply refinancing to lower their rate. (A very smart move since 30 mortgage rates are the lowest they've ever been).

These folks however, aren't using the extra saving to buy new cars or tv's, etc. Like I said, these are the responsible people. The rest can't take advantage of the low rates because they either don't qualify or are still underwater on their current mortgage. (Of course these are the same folks who bought new cars and tv's and things the last time they refinanced).

So....Look out below!!!! Let's get ready to rumble!!! My bet is on the bear!