2/18/2010 The Party's Over!

Sample of today's headlines:

Jobless Claims, Inflation Jump as Economy Wobbles

Bank Profits Ready to Tumble, Stocks to Fall: Whitney

Wal-Mart Sales Fall Short of Forecasts

Fed Raises Discount Rate to 0.75% From 0.50%

Does anybody else see what is happening? The Fed must now start reeling in the massive amount of liquidity it has poured into the market.

Rates rising, Dollar soaring, Euro crashing, unemployment rising, Sovereign debt coming out of the closet (thanks to GS). Hmmmm.

Earlier this week the Chinese expressed that they maybe tire of buying our debt. Well, let's give them a higher rate to entice them to buy more! (Yeh, that'll work).

Next weeks headlines:

Weak demand for Treasury Auction!

Even if the economy can somehow continue to grow, the run in the stock market is over!

Might have been early on the 14th but happy with our position.

Tsunami to the downside 02/14/2010

Back to 200% short. A tsunami of selling lies ahead as we are on the precipice of a collapse in stock prices.

2010 will be the year of runaway deflation due to massive government and sovereign debt. Bailing out Greece will only produce a precedent of "here is where the line starts" for more bailouts, be it Dubai, Spain or Portugal, etc.

The public sentiment towards Goldman Sachs, and other large banking/brokerage institutions will reach a negative extreme and turn buyers away from stocks as the perception of the game will seem rigged. 401k holders who rode the wave down, then back up trying to get back to even, only to see their loses mount again will walk away thoroughly disgusted at Wall Street.

Only the understanding of the game, that money can be made going up or down, will be the key to survival in this market.

2/5/2010 Roller Coaster

Wheeeeee! Alright! Covered shorts right after 1:00 p.m., unfortunately just before a VIX spike and 10 point drop to 1044.50 which would have increaed profits greatly, but oh well, you can never pick the exact tops or bottom unless you just get lucky. (rather be lucky than good).

Short term - Market has created positive divergences on many time levels. Perhaps a shot down and then rally up into overbought conditions before we resume the downside.

Wait and let the market tell you what it is going to do.

LET'S RIDE THIS ROLLER COASTER!

2/04/2010 LOOK OUT BELOW!

While even bear markets don't go straight down, this one has a long way to go. The market is quite oversold at the moment, but as we know the market can stay irrational a lot longer than we can stay solvent.

Greece, today. Spain tomorrow, perhaps Great Britain will become insolvent as well. All I can say is that global debt is a killer!

Like the iceberg, that is a lot below that we can't even see.

Holding short but expecting some buying to relieve the O/S condition.