10/25/2009
This market won't die! Yet!
Covered most all short-term short positions Friday. Hedged long term shorts with short term Nov SPY calls and Short sales of Nov GS puts. Look to re-enter all short positions this week or at least by next week.
The longer this market goes up, the worse the fall will be.
If the market can rally into the end of the month, we should see multiple non-confirmations and trade-able divergences.
Covered most all short-term short positions Friday. Hedged long term shorts with short term Nov SPY calls and Short sales of Nov GS puts. Look to re-enter all short positions this week or at least by next week.
The longer this market goes up, the worse the fall will be.
If the market can rally into the end of the month, we should see multiple non-confirmations and trade-able divergences.
October 21, 2009
Responding to criticism that the Obama administration's $787 billion in stimulus spending hasn't done enough to boost employment, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told CNBC Wednesday that the recovery package passed in January has created or saved one million jobs, and without it, the economy would be in much worse shape.
AP
Nancy Pelosi
She did say, however, that more needs to be done.
"It's not enough to say we saved jobs, and we haven't created enough," she said.
As a result, the administration is considering short-term initiatives to help businesses boost hiring, such as a $3,000 tax credit for adding new employees, Pelosi said.
It has discussed extending health benefits from COBRA, so that people who have lost their jobs "have some relief," she said.
The government's multi-billion investments in health care and energy are also designed to create more jobs, she said.
"And we thought Rick Wagoner of GM was incompetent...God Help Us All!!!!"
The Top is Here!
10/15/2009
Been a while since the last post. If you call a top too early, you are simply wrong. The best line learned from Cramer is "diversification is the only free lunch."
While I've continued to cry SELL! It has been too early. (i.e. wrong). Hedging my short positions with call options has kept an early call from being a drastic call. Diversify, hedge, whatever, it means the same and works. Always be protected.
However, by tomorrow afternoon, all hedges will be lifted and diversification thrown to the wind. (I will use stops of course).
Google did blow out the numbers and should take this market over 1100 S & P. 1107 should be hard resistance. 1125 is my stop. I am giving a lot of leeway for the stop.
The market is tired and leadership waning. (GS, IBM).
Without going into the fundamental reasons why banking and the economy suffers with high unemployment, etc, etc, etc...or post technical charts, I'll merely say SELL!!!!
Welcome to the Great Bear Market of 2010, 2011.
Been a while since the last post. If you call a top too early, you are simply wrong. The best line learned from Cramer is "diversification is the only free lunch."
While I've continued to cry SELL! It has been too early. (i.e. wrong). Hedging my short positions with call options has kept an early call from being a drastic call. Diversify, hedge, whatever, it means the same and works. Always be protected.
However, by tomorrow afternoon, all hedges will be lifted and diversification thrown to the wind. (I will use stops of course).
Google did blow out the numbers and should take this market over 1100 S & P. 1107 should be hard resistance. 1125 is my stop. I am giving a lot of leeway for the stop.
The market is tired and leadership waning. (GS, IBM).
Without going into the fundamental reasons why banking and the economy suffers with high unemployment, etc, etc, etc...or post technical charts, I'll merely say SELL!!!!
Welcome to the Great Bear Market of 2010, 2011.
"Get out while you can"
August 30, 2009
As in the song by the Downtown Executives, "You'd better get out while you can."
Market tops are made by a process. While this bear market rally rose on good news and bad news it kept rising. Now we are seeing the market failing to rise on even better news. (Intel) If the top is not in yet we are too close to be long anymore.
When the market bottomed in March, the news was drastic. Now the news is ecstatic. (We've save the World)!
The fed meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming this month acknowledge that last year they didn't see coming what ultimately happened. This year they praised themselves for saving the world.
Unfortunately, they do not see what is coming again.
States and local governments will not have the revenues to meet their obligations.
Unemployment is still rising causing further strain on housing and foreclosures.
Cash for Clunkers has pulled sales forward and is merely a government subsidy which creates more debt.
While I could go on and on, I'll merely say "get out while you can."
This market is at levels which it won't see for years to come.
The dollar will rise from these levels against all odds which will sink stocks, commodities and commodity related stocks.
Deflation is here and is about to reign full force.
Be prepared.
As in the song by the Downtown Executives, "You'd better get out while you can."
Market tops are made by a process. While this bear market rally rose on good news and bad news it kept rising. Now we are seeing the market failing to rise on even better news. (Intel) If the top is not in yet we are too close to be long anymore.
When the market bottomed in March, the news was drastic. Now the news is ecstatic. (We've save the World)!
The fed meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming this month acknowledge that last year they didn't see coming what ultimately happened. This year they praised themselves for saving the world.
Unfortunately, they do not see what is coming again.
States and local governments will not have the revenues to meet their obligations.
Unemployment is still rising causing further strain on housing and foreclosures.
Cash for Clunkers has pulled sales forward and is merely a government subsidy which creates more debt.
While I could go on and on, I'll merely say "get out while you can."
This market is at levels which it won't see for years to come.
The dollar will rise from these levels against all odds which will sink stocks, commodities and commodity related stocks.
Deflation is here and is about to reign full force.
Be prepared.
Foreclosures don't matter in housing recovery
But RealtyTrac's Rick Sharga, who saw no good news in his own report, begged to differ on the overall housing recovery:
" If we'd had this conversation a year ago, and you'd asked me if the housing market could recover simultaneously while foreclosure numbers were spiking, I would have said probably not, but we are seeing some data that almost looks contradictory. We're seeing increased levels of foreclosure activity, and we're seeing price stabilization at the same time. So it could just be that there is so much buying interest because the affordability levels have become basically record levels, and there's this inventory sitting out there waiting for the buyers. The market might be recovering at what amounts to the "new normal" level of foreclosure activity at least for the time being. "
HELLO!!!! Perhaps Rick Sarga should to "RealityTrac" to get a bit more info.
Now I know we all want housing to turn around, but just like all the new government debt, you must absorb the supply to bottom out and go forward. While the high number of foreclosures does mean we're getting rid of bad debts the report also points out new areas of foreclosures such as Kansas, Oregon, Missouri, etc... which reflect the consequences of the high unemployment.
Take advantage of the exuberant bullishness and sell all your stock holdings. As for real estate, there will be plenty of time still to buy cheap. Look towards 2010 thru 2012.
" If we'd had this conversation a year ago, and you'd asked me if the housing market could recover simultaneously while foreclosure numbers were spiking, I would have said probably not, but we are seeing some data that almost looks contradictory. We're seeing increased levels of foreclosure activity, and we're seeing price stabilization at the same time. So it could just be that there is so much buying interest because the affordability levels have become basically record levels, and there's this inventory sitting out there waiting for the buyers. The market might be recovering at what amounts to the "new normal" level of foreclosure activity at least for the time being. "
HELLO!!!! Perhaps Rick Sarga should to "RealityTrac" to get a bit more info.
Now I know we all want housing to turn around, but just like all the new government debt, you must absorb the supply to bottom out and go forward. While the high number of foreclosures does mean we're getting rid of bad debts the report also points out new areas of foreclosures such as Kansas, Oregon, Missouri, etc... which reflect the consequences of the high unemployment.
Take advantage of the exuberant bullishness and sell all your stock holdings. As for real estate, there will be plenty of time still to buy cheap. Look towards 2010 thru 2012.
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