July 21, 2010

Economic outlook remains "unusually uncertain."

Bull/Bear case is at a crossroads. Tomorrow's Jobs report could tilt the hand one way or another.

Looking short term for a break of either 1100 to the upside or 1040 to the downside to determine future direction.

July 10, 2010 Lot's of Bears

While we continue to believe the market will roll over from here and head south fast, there are concerning signs with the number of bears.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/38168490

In third waves however, you can allow for a majority to be alined in the same direction for a while. This of course leads to a majority of bearish conviction which in turn will create a buying opportunity. We just feel at this point that it will be from a lower level.

Any sustained move above this current 1080/1090 level could signal the low is in place.

07/05/2010

Happy Independence Day!!!! Remember why this holiday exist!



Looking for a short term capitulation. Add to shorts on the bounce. Far from over on the downside medium to long term.

06/08/2010 Time to reload!

Reloaded 25% of shorts at the close. Will continue to reload up to 1080.

Some technicals looking bullish. However, we just don't think the bottom is in yet.

Two moves to make at the edge of the abyss.
1) fall over
2) go away

We're reloading for scenario #1.

06/06/2010


We sold our puts and closed short positions on the close Friday. Although this market could still plunge lower, there is a clear divergence between the Dow/S&P and NASDAQ.

Typically when NASDAQ leads we rally. Most techs are well capitalized with low debt structures. We are currently very oversold, however in this type situation the cliff still lies ahead. Whether or not it is tomorrow, next week or next month, we are close to the abyss.

Looking to re-enter short positions as soon as we relieve the oversold condition.

05/03/2010 Deflation ahead!

http://http//www.cnbc.com/id/36913625

Deflation increases the debt burden. Inflation will eventually be the only way out for sovereign debt. If it would only happen sooner rather than later.

05/01/2010 GM pays back loan??????

http://www.forbes.com/2010/04/23/general-motors-economy-bailout-opinions-columnists-shikha-dalmia.html

Nice!

The market has either topped or we will make one more run towards a new high, then look out below.

2nd half of 2010 will be like 2008.